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BEIJING, September 2 (TMTPOST) – International Data Corporation (IDC)"s newly released report shows that this year"s smartphone shipments are forecast to decrease by 6.5% to 1.27 billion, and prices will also increase by 6.3%.
The main reason is the significantly suppressed consumer demand affected by inflation, geopolitics, and other factors.
The latest report released by IDC shows that the latest forecast figure is down 3 percentage points from the previous forecast. But analysts also say this setback won"t last long, and that the market will rebound in 2023 with an annual growth rate of 5.2 percent and a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of up to 1.4 percent in the long term.
IDC believes that global 5G device shipments will grow 23.6% year on year in 2022, accounting for more than half (54%) of all shipments with 688 million devices and an average selling price (ASP) of $616.
In the long term, 5G models are expected to reach a 79% market share in 2026 with ASP up to $444. 4G models" ASP will reach $176 in 2022, and IDC believes that it will drop to $106 by the end of the year. As a result, the overall smartphone ASP will decline from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.
"The resilience of the market is a testament to the success of iOS, which has never seen a decline in full-year shipments since 2019." said Anthony Scarsella, a Research Director with IDC"s Mobile Phone research team.
Despite the overall market decline, iOS shipments will maintain growth of 0.5% in 2022. Furthermore, the operating system will show minimal growth throughout the forecast period, with ASP hovering above $950. As for Android, the world"s most popular operating system, it will show a decline of nearly 8% in 2022 but will rebound strongly with a 6.2% growth in 2023. Unfortunately, the low-end market did not fare well in 2022, with shipments of android devices lower than $200 falling 22.4% and 16.5% in the first and second quarters, respectively. The good news is that sales of devices higher than $1,000 grew 35.2%, thanks to the success of high-end flagships and recent foldable devices in the market, Anthony Scarsella added.
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